ACC Tourney Preview

The Atlantic Coast Conference tournament kicks off Thursday in beautiful Tampa, Florida. This is the ACC's first journey to Florida, and a rare trip outside North Carolina for its conference tourney. Folks like Gary Williams of Maryland always rail about the NC-centrism of the league, even when he couldn't win it when it was in DC and got his only ACC title in Greensboro. But there's a good reason that, aside from an occasional foray to Atlanta or Washington, the nation's oldest basketball conference tournament is most often held in Greensboro or Charlotte: the fans there go apey for it and fill the place. Holding the tourney in the St. Pete Times Forum, the home of hockey's Tampa Bay Lightning, was surely driven by the conference's recent expansion. It's a big venue, and I guess it's a little easier for Miami and Florida State fans to make the trip. But the place might not even sell out, and some schools have had to dig pretty deep on the donor list to find people willing to go. So, it will probably be a different atmosphere than Old Home Week in Greensboro, not least because all those pasty fans won't know what to do with 80-degree temperatures in March. Heck, even I might rather go to one of the Gulf beaches or Busch Gardens instead of the Georgia Tech-Wake Forest game.

Nevertheless, I think the fans who do show up will have an interesting experience. Some of the games are going to have an impact on the NCAA tournament bubble, and even more will affect NCAA seeding. Plus, I don't think anyone really knows what to expect. To give an example of how tight this conference is this year, UNC's win over Duke last week gave the Heels the 1-seed, but if they had lost, they would have dropped to fifth and lost their bye. Duke is 23-1 over the last eight years of the tournament, but this year they're seeded seventh. Thanks to the unbalanced conference schedule, three of the top four seeds (UVA, UNC, and Boston College) played the three weakest schedules. So I think it's safe to say that we can expect something unusual to happen this week, even if it's only that Duke might not win the thing.

A few thoughts on Thursday's games and possible Friday matchups:

At noon, Clemson (8-seed) and Florida State (9) play what is probably an NCAA elimination game. The Tigers got a lot of infamy for starting out the season 17-0 and then dropping to 21-9. But the fact is that none of those 17 wins were all that stellar, with Georgia, Georgia Tech, and Old Dominion probably being the best scalps they collected. They've had some close losses, and a nice win at Virginia Tech that is likely the only reason they're still on the bubble at all, show that Clemson can compete. They swept the Seminoles this season, but that's a little deceiving. FSU's point guard Toney Douglas broke his hand in the first game, a two-point Tiger win in Tallahassee, and the Noles struggled without him (including a bad loss at Clemson). But he came back for their season finale and scored 13. I think Douglas's return, combined with Al Thornton's consistently excellent performance, will be enough to squeak one out here. And who knows, maybe the Florida crowd will help, too. Either way, neither of these teams should be able to hang with a fired-up (1) North Carolina team Friday.

The afternoon's second game is (5) Maryland against (12) Miami. The Terps are playing as well as anybody in the league right now, and Miami has stunk all season. This one won't even be close. What will be interesting to see is if Maryland can keep their hot streak going for four days and win the whole thing. I think they're better than (4) Boston College, and predict Maryland to win a hard-fought game Friday. A loss there could drop BC towards the dreaded 8-9 game in the Big Dance, while boosting Maryland's seeding very nicely. I think the Terps will run out of steam against a very deep UNC team on Saturday, but they did beat the Heels once this year. Both Coach Williamses will have their teams on a mission this week, and I think a Maryland-UNC semi would be the game of the tournament.

The evening session kicks off with (7) Duke in an unfamiliar spot, playing (10) NC State without a bye. Duke routed the Wolfpack in Raleigh earlier this season, but things have changed since then. First, the Pack didn't have star guard Engin Atsur in that game. Now, they didn't do that well after he came back. But he does create matchup problems for the Devils. Second, personnel problems will be exacerbated by the suspension of Duke's Gerald Henderson after the elbow incident in the UNC game. Greg Paulus will have to continue scoring like he has been lately, and Josh McRoberts will have to assert himself offensively and defensively. McRoberts has scored 12 or fewer in seven of Duke's last nine games, and Duke is 5-4 in those games. He's not the only reason for those losses, but Duke needs to rely on McRoberts this week. I think Duke still has enough talent and defensive pressure to beat State, but I'll be nervous watching it. The good thing for Duke is that the bracket sets up very well for them. If they get past NC State, they'll play (2) Virginia on Friday. The Cavaliers' backcourt combo of Sean Singletary and J.R. Reynolds has been amazing this year, but UVA needed 42 points from those two and a crazy late shot from Singletary to beat Duke 68-66 at home, and even then, Paulus had an open shot to win at the buzzer. Having Henderson back will certainly help Duke, too. And I don't think Virginia is as good as its record (or seed) would indicate. I think Duke can upset Virginia and make it to the semis, where they would meet Virginia Tech or Georgia Tech, both teams Duke can beat. The Devils aren't deep, and three wins in three days may be too much to ask, and both Techs have beaten Duke this year, but I think Duke would have a better shot against them than against Maryland or UNC. Don't be surprised by anything from Duke after its up-and-down season, including blowing one against State Thursday, but don't be surprised to see them in the finals, either.

The nightcap Thursday is (6) Georgia Tech against (11) Wake Forest. Tech has two great freshmen, forward Thaddeus Young and guard Javaris Crittenton. They beat UNC and BC last week to shore up a likely NCAA bid. Wake upset UVA to keep the Wahoos from claiming the 1-seed (another sign UVA is overseeded, to me), and the Deacons' struggles this year have obscured the solid season Kyle Visser has handed in. But Tech is feeling confident, and the UVA win was Wake's last gasp. I expect the Forum will be quite empty by the time Tech is finished blowing out Wake. Tech would go on to play (3) Virginia Tech Friday night. That will be a great game, too. The Hokies are an experienced bunch, led by seniors Zabian Dowdell and Jamon Gordon and junior Deron Washington. They would have won the ACC if not for late losses to UVA and Clemson, and they've had some inexplicably bad losses this year to Marshall and Western Michigan (!), as well as getting swept by NC State. It would not surprise me at all to see Virginia Tech lay another egg somewhere this week, and the Georgia Tech game seems like a good candidate. I'll predict the mild upset there, especially if the Hokies start thinking ahead to a game against UVA or Duke.

North Carolina still has to be considered the strong favorite to win the ACC tournament. But Maryland is capable of derailing them, and if Virginia Tech doesn't have one of its Jeckyl-and-Hyde games, it can beat anybody in the league. A lot of people want to see a Duke-UNC rematch in the finals, and it could happen, but Duke would have to put together three solid games in three days, something I'm not sure they're able to do right now. It would just about fitting in this Bizarro-world ACC tournament to see a Boston College-Georgia Tech final. It might sound like I'm just playing the chalk, but I think the likeliest final is probably UNC versus UVA, a game I think the Heels would win by something like eight or ten points. But if Maryland beats UNC, I don't think anyone in the bottom half of the bracket would be able to cool them off. It pains me terribly to make those predictions, but it's been that kind of year.