Digger's the Right Man for the Job

Keith Hernandez and Clyde Frazier proved that sports commentary on real life is both cheesy and amusing. Here's another example from McSweeney's: ESPN Gameday comments on the author's "performance." How can the phrase "low post" be omitted from this story?

Tubby Leaves the Cats

ESPN is reporting that Tubby Smith, the embattled head basketball coach at Kentucky, is leaving Lexington for ... Minnesota? You mean this Minnesota?

The UK fans evidently hated Tubby, refusing to forgive him for not being Rick Pitino. They also cannot forgive Tubby for not having a better team than Florida (although, who does?). UK fans can't stand losing six straight to the Gators, the basketball neuve riche to the Wildcat blue blood. As a UGA fan, I say, welcome to the club. I will remind the kitties that Tubby did win you a national championship in his first year, so you might have wanted to cut him a bit of slack. At least give the guy a pat on the back as he heads to the great white north.

So who replaces Tubby? Does Rick Pitino have the gall to leave Louisville for UK?

ESPN's Fall Season Preview

Television broadcast network ESPN has released its preliminary fall season preview. It's filled with high quality programming: A family drama pitting overbearing father against rebellious son (Florida State at Clemson); neighborhood soap operas where people living in close proximity find unexpected bonds of hatred (Oklahoma at Tulsa & West Virginia at Marshall); a law enforcement show about conservative law-abiding citizens attempting to restore justice and truth to a God-forsaken group of gangster children (Texas A&M at Miami); and a show about an inspirational underdogs rising to a great challenge and, in a surprising twist, being totally annihilated by a powerful foe (LSU at Tulane). The TV executives at ESPN have really outdone themselves with the season's lineup.

In a serious question, how is Oklahoma State at Georgia left off this list? ESPN was reportedly the driving force behind putting the game together. Now they can't say for sure they will broadcast it? And, if Virginia Tech at LSU isn't on ESPN at 6:45, then ESPN should cease operations in those two states. The fans of those schools have been eagerly awaiting Tech's visit to Baton Rouge since the Hokies destroyed LSU back in 2002. LSU wants a showcase game and ESPN should provide it.

Spring Notes

Photo from Baton Rouge Advocate - Michael G. Seamans

I know I promised this last week, but better late than never. Take a break from sweating over your bracket to get a little update from spring practices around the SEC.

Tennessee - The big news in Knoxville is Erik Ainge's knee and the new hurried offense he was to conduct. Ainge will have surgery Monday to repair some meniscus damage in his right knee. He is expected to sit out until July. Ainge will need to recover for summer workouts because most of his primary targets will not be in Knoxville for spring practice. Meanwhile, Jonathan Crompton is running with the first team during Ainge's absence. I know Ainge is the starter and showed great improvement last year, but I was impressed with some of Crompton's fill-in duty last year. In the LSU game he looked good, even though he never really repeated that performance. The reports from Knoxville indicate a workmanlike, but sluggish Vol offense and a defense full of question marks. The Vol coaching staff are reportedly counting on several incoming recruits to start next year. Keep your fingers crossed, Vols.

Auburn - The Aubs need to find defensive linemen and wide receivers this spring and they are doing well with one of those. Reports are that the Aubs should have a solid rotation up front with Mike Blanc coming on. The young guys are showing that there could be some depth at defensive line. The receivers, however, are doing an imitation of Georgia receivers. They've reportedly dropped a load of balls. No word if Tubs has followed Mike Leach's tennis ball machine remedy for the drops.

LSU - The angry and vicious LSU defense has dominated spring practices in Baton Rouge. Media reports talk of an unblockable Tyson Jackson and of a playmaking Curtis Taylor filling in for the departed headhunter, LaRon Landry. That's not exactly the way to instill confidence in dueling quarterbacks Matt Flynn and Ryan Perrilloux. Count on Flynn starting for the Tigers unless he gets hurt. Word is that Perrilloux has worked with the first team, but not near as much as Flynn. Also, look for LSU, much to the chagrin of their fans, to rotate several running backs next year because they have a boatload of good young backs. Gary Crowton is reportedly installing several wishbone/option looks for LSU to run out of, taking advantage of Flynn's mobility.

Georgia - There haven't been many real stories coming out of Athens this spring. New offensive line coach Stacey Searls is trying to whip his group of newcomers into shape so that Matt Stafford will have some protection. The two groups to watch have been Searls offensive line and the linebacking position. The Dawgs lost all three starting linebackers from last year. Brandon Miller, a former uber recruit, has moved inside with a group of nubies and troublemakers fighting it out for the outside spots. I expect the starters for the Oklahoma State game will be Miller, Dannell Ellerbe, and Darius Dewberry (although word is that Akeem Dent is pushing him). The offense needs to get Sean Bailey, who is back from a torn ACL in 2005, in shape and ready to provide a deep threat for Stafford. Reports indicate that Bailey is ready to go and has looked good so far.

Arkansas - Spring practice has just started for the Hogs, but it will be an important one. After all the upheaval of the last few months, this is an important time for Houston Nutt and the Razorbacks. They lost a lot of good players last year and are installing a new offense and a new defense. All you need to know so far is that Darren McFadden is back and the Wildcat formation will be back too. So look for a potent running game from the Hawgs.

Crap.

Well, Duke just lost by two to VCU in the NCAA tournament. I knew this would be a tough one going on, what with VCU's athletic guard play and solid shooting. But I really thought Duke would pull it out. And they almost did. What did they miss, a dozen free throws? It wasn't like the mighty Ram defense was guarding Duke on those shots, although the VCU press clearly wore Duke down as the game went on. You've got to get your legs into your free throws, young ballers, and Duke had tired legs by the end of the game.

Still, all the credit goes to VCU for sticking with its game plan and forcing a ton of turnovers. They did what they had to do and deserved to win. What really sucks about this is that tomorrow all the dang commentators who were so down on Duke will get to crow like a banty rooster and tell us how smart they were and how Coach K has lost it. Well, all I have to say is that I hope the Duke-haters got their licks in this year, because there won't be many chances like this season. Remember, the last time Duke went through a season like this one, they followed it with a twelve-year run that was one of the most impressive in basketball. Make hay while the sun shines, folks, because you won't get a chance like this too often.

The View From Oklahoma City

Sorry for the poor picture quality, but I only had the camera phone. Oklahoma City was a nice locale for a basketball tournament. It has a nice arena right next to a big convention center right next to their entertainment district, "Bricktown." Some observations:

1. Julian Wright may be my favorite college basketball player if only because his body is so unlikely. He has a normal size body, but his neck, arms, and legs look like fire hoses. When he moves at normal speed, it looks like he is being controlled by a puppeteer, bobbing his head and limbs as he walks. But, when he plays, he looks somehow natural, as if the only thing that body was ever built for was basketball. All his flailing has a purpose. He can shoot and looks to score whenever he gets it. Now if we could work on those windmill dunks.



2. Kevin Durant is everything he is cracked up to be. He's 6-9, his hands hang down below his knees, he can shoot effortlessly and accurately. He was by far the best player in the tournament and it hard for me to imagine a better player in college over the last several years. He had 37 Sunday and they were effortless. Three pointers that didn't touch the rim, baseline spin moves, he never looked like he was working out there. Everything looked natural. The only knock I have on him is that he never put together a complete game. He would dominate a half and then sort of disappear. If he does put together a complete game, he'd score 50. I thought he might Sunday after he hung 19 on Kansas in ten minutes. Texas is a dangerous team if only because no one will figure out Durant.

3. Another guy that impressed me was Jarrius Jackson for Texas Tech. He could shoot it and drive it down low for tough lay-ins. It's a good thing he is so good, because Texas Tech didn't impress me in OKC. Jackson was their only threat to score for most of the game. Their offense looked completely out of sync the whole game and Bob Knight chewed his players for it. I know they had some big wins, but Texas Tech didn't look ready for the tournament.

4. Is it me or do the promotions people who pick fans for the shooting contests amused with how unathletic their contestants are? Do they get three guys together, make them run, and whoever falls down during the race gets to shoot for new tires or a chicken sandwiches? One guy they picked last weekend looked like he swallowed a watermelon. When he ran to retrieve a rebound, he looked like a weeble wobble rocking toward the ball. If I'm never selected for one of those contests, I will take it as a compliment to my meager athletic abilities.

5. After seven games with every halftime consumed by mediocre dancing girls performing stripper moves, I'm issuing a challenge. ADs everywhere, ban the dancing girls. From now on, I only want three varieties of half time entertainment: Frisbee catching dogs, acrobats, and the quick change lady.

Basketball tournaments are a lot of fun. The setting is more intimate than football. You can hear the players, the crowds get loud in a confined building, and the bands play loud during the breaks. It's a great atmosphere. With that said, basketball may be the most gut wrenching sport ever invented. No lead seems safe. The final two minutes are constant pressure. If Georgia ever gets a team deep into the NCAAs, I would explode under the stress.

Crackin' the Bracket

A few thoughts about the NCAA tournament:

First, be sure to join up in the Wishbone's ESPN tournament challenge group! The group name is "Wishbone Blog," and the password is "kylekingbee." All readers welcome!

Looking at the bracket by region, here are my quick takes. My "buy" recommendations are for bottom-bracket teams (seeded 9-16) who will make some noise, and my "sell" recommendations are top-bracket teams (seeds 1-8) who will go out earlier than expected.

Midwest. Buy: ODU (12) and Davidson (13). Both of these teams are capable of upsets (over Butler (5) and Maryland (4), respectively). Maryland has to be especially nervous, because even though it got a 4-seed, any of the teams in its subregional are good enough to beat the Terps. Sell: Wisconsin (2). Any team that can score over 50 is a threat to the Badgers, and it sees UNLV (7), Georgia Tech (10), Oregon (3), Notre Dame (6), and Winthrop (11) between it and the regional final. One of those teams will find a way to get past Alando Tucker and Bucky. My pick: Florida (1). I think the other high seeds are at high-risk of upsets, and I think things will open up for the Gators if they play like they did in the SEC tournament.

West. Buy: Gonzaga (10), I guess. I can't bring myself to pick VCU (11) over my Duke Blue Devils (6), but the Rams are exactly the kind of team that matches up well against Duke -- experienced, athletic backcourt, good shooters. I'm very, very uneasy about that game Thursday. But Gonzaga is also capable of surprises. I think their lineup has gelled after some injuries and suspensions. They needed to win the West Coast Conference tourney to be assured of a bid, and stepped up and did so. Their style contrasts well against Indiana's (7), and they'll be fired up to beat UCLA (2) if they get to round two after last year's thriller. (And UCLA returns most of that team, so Zags coach Mark Few will have the scouting report ready.) Sell: Pittsburgh (3). Pitt didn't really have any bad losses this season until getting creamed by Georgetown in the Big East final. But I think Duke matches up well against them and can beat the Panthers. Otherwise, it wouldn't surprise me to see Virginia Tech (4) or Kentucky (8) tank. My pick: Kansas (1). I really like Kansas this year, and especially in this bracket. A Kansas-UCLA regional final would be a great game. Sure, the Jayhawks could lose to someone like Oral Roberts again, but I think they're a lot better than they were back then. I think they would be pushed by teams like Villanova (9) and Southern Illinois (4), but not hard enough to wear them down.

East. Buy: Michigan State (9). The Spartans can beat anyone if Drew Neitzel scores. If they can limit turnovers and transition baskets, they can frustrate North Carolina (1). Now, they're just as likely to go out and lose to Marquette (8), but Tom Izzo knows how to get his teams to the Sweet Sixteen. Sell: UNC. This isn't just the Dukie in me talking. To get out of this region, the Tar Heels will have to beat either Marquette or MSU, then probably Texas (4) and Georgetown (2). Texas is underseeded, and I would love to see GU's Roy Hibbert schooling Tyler Hansbrough. UNC is young and prone to lapses, and they just face too many hurdles to make it to Atlanta. My pick: I think I like Texas, actually. I may just be infatuated with Kevin Durant, but he is a special player, the Danny Manning-type who can carry his team to four wins (or more). The supporting cast is pretty good, too. I'm wary of putting any confidence in Rick Barnes, though.

South. Buy: Um, nobody? Creighton (10), I guess. This is a very top-heavy bracket, though, and I suspect it will go mostly according to chalk (famous last words, I know). I really like Nevada (7) as a sleeper, but Creighton is a good ball club and if it can shut down Nick Fazekas and if Nate Funk gets hot, the Bluejays can pull the upset. Sell: Virginia (4). Holy crap, get all your assets out of this junk bond before it goes belly-up. Just like I said about the ACC tournament, the Cavaliers are not as good as their seed. I really can't understand this one. The funny thing is, and the reason the Wahoos might even be worth sticking with for a couple of games, is that they surely have enough talent to beat Albany (13), and I don't think Tennessee (5) is all that great, either. So UVA might even make it to the Sweet Sixteen (to be slaughtered by Ohio State (1)). But they're certainly not worthy of a 4-seed, compared to the other 4s and 5s in the bracket. Memphis (2) is a real enigma, too, considering what a weak schedule it played. My pick: Texas A&M (3). I think the Aggies are more battle-tested than Memphis, and I think Acie Law IV can get them past Greg Oden and Ohio State.

My Final Four picks: Kansas over Florida; Texas over Texas A&M. I didn't realize I had picked three Big XII teams for the Final Four until just now, and I may change my mind by the time I fill in my actual bracket. And certainly, UCLA, Ohio State, North Carolina, and Georgetown (to name a few) would be solid picks. But this is just my first, gut reaction to the brackets, without looking too closely at a lot of the matches. But I'd be fine with it playing out this way if we get a championship game as good as Sunday's Big XII final between Kansas and Texas. Rick Barnes has made it to a Final Four, and Bill Self hasn't, and that's usually a good indicator of who will win these games. But I think Kansas has more talent overall, and Self certainly won't be unfamiliar with the Longhorns. So my pick to win it all (at least for now) is the Kansas Jayhawks. Rock, chalk, and all that.

Again, please join the Wishbone ESPN tournament challenge group, and good luck with your own picks. And don't mock me too much when mine turn out to be awful!

Thursday Night Wrap-up

1. As a follow-up to Kyle's Pokey Chatman post, the situation there has gone from rumors to the reporting of the rumors. A classic press technique, to avoid saying outright that "X did Y." Instead, we get "People are saying X did Y." I'll leave it to Kyle to follow this up as he sees fit.

2. In on-the-court news, what a crazy first days for the ACC! Florida State likely ended Clemson's NCAA chances thanks in large part to a questionable call. Clemson has got to be bitter after the late-game refereeing in losses to Duke and FSU. But it should be said that Clemson had its chances. Against Duke, it only had to stop the Devils from going the length of the court in five seconds, and against FSU, it had the ball with a chance to win and threw it away with an over-and-back violation. Clemson may want to blame the refs for its ticket to the NIT, but it had execution errors and problems finishing games, and that's what really doomed them.

3. But at least I called that one. I was dead wrong about the other three games. Miami played its best game of the year and held off Maryland for the upset of the day. I don't think anyone saw that coming, as hot as Maryland was coming into the game and as bad as Miami was. I'm sure Gary Williams set a new sweat record.

4. The Duke game was frustrating to watch, but not without some positives. NC State got a great game from Brandon Costner and beat the Devils in overtime. But I think Duke can use this game as a stepping stone for the Big Dance. First, this was the first time a team shot 60% against Duke all year; if Duke had played even mediocre defense (by its standards), or State hadn't been amazingly hot, Duke would have won. Second, Duke was able to get bench scoring from Marty Pocius, the lithe Lithuanian. That's a nice plus. Third, Josh McRoberts really asserted himself at times, a very positive development. Finally, I think Gerald Henderson would have made the difference, especially given Duke's foul trouble. I'm not predicting a long run for Duke in the tournament, but there's hope yet. But really, kudos to the Wolfpack for doing what needed to be done, and good luck to them the rest of the way.

5. The late game between Wake Forest and Georgia Tech also went against my expectations, although the crowd really did thin out. I listed to the overtimes on the radio, and it sounded like a blast (especially because former Alabama coach Wimp Sanderson was doing the color). Thirty-four points in the first OT! One amazing shot after another! They broke the scoreboard! The hockey arena apparently wasn't equipped to keep scores over 100, so it started showing scores like 9-8 when it was 109-108. Wild. The highest scoring ACC tournament game ever. Eventually, Wake pulled it out 114-112. It was a shame anyone had to lose. Incredible doesn't even begin to adequately describe it.

Overall, quite a day of basketball for the ACC. They couldn't have asked for a more exciting set of games. And it will probably add some fuel to the league's claim to be the best in the country this year if the bottom four seeds in the league can all win a game in the tournament.

UPDATE: I realized belatedly that I hadn't even really looked ahead to Friday. I guess I was exhausted from Thursday's games. Plus, with Duke out of it, I don't care as much. But I'm sure the top four seeds are very happy. Wake better get a good night's sleep before playing Virginia Tech. I'd like to see Al Thornton have a good game against UNC, but I just think Carolina has too much for the Seminoles to handle. The same for BC against Miami. I think NC State can beat UVA if they play as well as they did against Duke, but there are a lot of teams out there who get up to play Duke and fall flat against everyone else, so I don't expect a repeat performance against the Cavs. But I think the Pack has the best chance of extending its run.

6. Elsewhere, Kentucky burst Alabama's bubble, Air Force and UMass probably suffered the same fate, Stanford will have a nervous weekend, and Illinois and Michigan had scares but may still not be safe. Air Force may be the most interesting case here. Last year, they were a controversial addition to the tournament, and an early loss seemed to justify the criticism. They're capable of beating teams with that wacky Princeton offense they run, but they're also capable of some bad losses. I think they're better than last year, but will probably get left out this time. It's all about timing.

7. UCLA also lost, to Cal, in the Pac-10 tournament. That may be one of the bigger upsets of the season. My gut tells me that UCLA will still get a #1-seed in the NCAAs, although obviously it's dicier now. My logic is just that they were so good in a better-than-usual Pac-10, and the fact that the teams vying for the 1-seeds will also have some chances to lose this weekend. North Carolina has to like its chances now, but a loss Friday would almost certainly relegate them to a #2. Likewise Florida. Texas A&M and Kansas in the Big XII and Wisconsin and Ohio State in the Big Ten will probably cancel each other out. So, UCLA may have fallen, but may still get passed on the way down. If I had to bet right now, I'd say your #1-seeds will be the Bruins, the Tar Heels, Ohio State, and Florida, but that's largely dependent on the assumption that Wisconsin and OSU will meet in the Big Ten championship, and that the winner will be unclear by the time the Committee has to hand in the bracket. Of course, Wisconsin would replace Florida or UNC if either of them lose before the conference finals.

More to come over the weekend....

Forecast: Light to No Posting Ahead

This won't be much of a change from last week and there really aren't enough loyal readers to warrant a post of this sort, but I doubt there'll be much posting from now until Monday. I'm going to Oklahoma City for the weekend to take in the mighty Big 12's basketball tournament. A friend is a Kansas grad and avid basketball fan. When he told me he was considering a trip, I said that I'd never been to Oklahoma. That was reason enough to go. I'll get to see Kevin Durant, Acie Law, Bob Knight, the Jayhawks, and listen to "I've Been Working on the Railroad," so it should be a good time.

I hope to have two posts Monday: 1) a spring football roundup where I'll discuss Erik Ainge's knee, Seth Watts's courage, and Gary Crowton's option attack and 2) a few thoughts from Oklahoma City.

Pokey Leaves LSU

In a stunning, stunning move, LSU women's basketball coach Pokey Chatman announced yesterday that she will resign at the end of this season to pursue "other career opportunities." Chapman is 90-14 during her LSU tenure and led the team to three final four appearances in four years. She is one of the most successful women's coaches ever. She is young, at the head of one of the nation's best women's programs, and just inked a new deal worth $400,000 a year. So, why is she leaving?

No one seems to know. According to the Baton Rouge Advocate, rumors swirl that Chatman is leaving LSU for the open position at Florida. That rumor seems far fetched to me. Chatman is a former Lady Tiger and an LSU grad. Her playing and coaching career have been spent only in Baton Rouge. You just don't see too many people leaving their alma mater (see: Frank Beamer, Rich Rodriguez) to go coach a rival. If Jeremy Foley can lure Chatman to Gainsville, the rest of us should just quit because he will have attained the status of an AD God, able to smite all others with Bull Gator dollars and top ranked recruiting classes.

ACC Tourney Preview

The Atlantic Coast Conference tournament kicks off Thursday in beautiful Tampa, Florida. This is the ACC's first journey to Florida, and a rare trip outside North Carolina for its conference tourney. Folks like Gary Williams of Maryland always rail about the NC-centrism of the league, even when he couldn't win it when it was in DC and got his only ACC title in Greensboro. But there's a good reason that, aside from an occasional foray to Atlanta or Washington, the nation's oldest basketball conference tournament is most often held in Greensboro or Charlotte: the fans there go apey for it and fill the place. Holding the tourney in the St. Pete Times Forum, the home of hockey's Tampa Bay Lightning, was surely driven by the conference's recent expansion. It's a big venue, and I guess it's a little easier for Miami and Florida State fans to make the trip. But the place might not even sell out, and some schools have had to dig pretty deep on the donor list to find people willing to go. So, it will probably be a different atmosphere than Old Home Week in Greensboro, not least because all those pasty fans won't know what to do with 80-degree temperatures in March. Heck, even I might rather go to one of the Gulf beaches or Busch Gardens instead of the Georgia Tech-Wake Forest game.

Nevertheless, I think the fans who do show up will have an interesting experience. Some of the games are going to have an impact on the NCAA tournament bubble, and even more will affect NCAA seeding. Plus, I don't think anyone really knows what to expect. To give an example of how tight this conference is this year, UNC's win over Duke last week gave the Heels the 1-seed, but if they had lost, they would have dropped to fifth and lost their bye. Duke is 23-1 over the last eight years of the tournament, but this year they're seeded seventh. Thanks to the unbalanced conference schedule, three of the top four seeds (UVA, UNC, and Boston College) played the three weakest schedules. So I think it's safe to say that we can expect something unusual to happen this week, even if it's only that Duke might not win the thing.

A few thoughts on Thursday's games and possible Friday matchups:

At noon, Clemson (8-seed) and Florida State (9) play what is probably an NCAA elimination game. The Tigers got a lot of infamy for starting out the season 17-0 and then dropping to 21-9. But the fact is that none of those 17 wins were all that stellar, with Georgia, Georgia Tech, and Old Dominion probably being the best scalps they collected. They've had some close losses, and a nice win at Virginia Tech that is likely the only reason they're still on the bubble at all, show that Clemson can compete. They swept the Seminoles this season, but that's a little deceiving. FSU's point guard Toney Douglas broke his hand in the first game, a two-point Tiger win in Tallahassee, and the Noles struggled without him (including a bad loss at Clemson). But he came back for their season finale and scored 13. I think Douglas's return, combined with Al Thornton's consistently excellent performance, will be enough to squeak one out here. And who knows, maybe the Florida crowd will help, too. Either way, neither of these teams should be able to hang with a fired-up (1) North Carolina team Friday.

The afternoon's second game is (5) Maryland against (12) Miami. The Terps are playing as well as anybody in the league right now, and Miami has stunk all season. This one won't even be close. What will be interesting to see is if Maryland can keep their hot streak going for four days and win the whole thing. I think they're better than (4) Boston College, and predict Maryland to win a hard-fought game Friday. A loss there could drop BC towards the dreaded 8-9 game in the Big Dance, while boosting Maryland's seeding very nicely. I think the Terps will run out of steam against a very deep UNC team on Saturday, but they did beat the Heels once this year. Both Coach Williamses will have their teams on a mission this week, and I think a Maryland-UNC semi would be the game of the tournament.

The evening session kicks off with (7) Duke in an unfamiliar spot, playing (10) NC State without a bye. Duke routed the Wolfpack in Raleigh earlier this season, but things have changed since then. First, the Pack didn't have star guard Engin Atsur in that game. Now, they didn't do that well after he came back. But he does create matchup problems for the Devils. Second, personnel problems will be exacerbated by the suspension of Duke's Gerald Henderson after the elbow incident in the UNC game. Greg Paulus will have to continue scoring like he has been lately, and Josh McRoberts will have to assert himself offensively and defensively. McRoberts has scored 12 or fewer in seven of Duke's last nine games, and Duke is 5-4 in those games. He's not the only reason for those losses, but Duke needs to rely on McRoberts this week. I think Duke still has enough talent and defensive pressure to beat State, but I'll be nervous watching it. The good thing for Duke is that the bracket sets up very well for them. If they get past NC State, they'll play (2) Virginia on Friday. The Cavaliers' backcourt combo of Sean Singletary and J.R. Reynolds has been amazing this year, but UVA needed 42 points from those two and a crazy late shot from Singletary to beat Duke 68-66 at home, and even then, Paulus had an open shot to win at the buzzer. Having Henderson back will certainly help Duke, too. And I don't think Virginia is as good as its record (or seed) would indicate. I think Duke can upset Virginia and make it to the semis, where they would meet Virginia Tech or Georgia Tech, both teams Duke can beat. The Devils aren't deep, and three wins in three days may be too much to ask, and both Techs have beaten Duke this year, but I think Duke would have a better shot against them than against Maryland or UNC. Don't be surprised by anything from Duke after its up-and-down season, including blowing one against State Thursday, but don't be surprised to see them in the finals, either.

The nightcap Thursday is (6) Georgia Tech against (11) Wake Forest. Tech has two great freshmen, forward Thaddeus Young and guard Javaris Crittenton. They beat UNC and BC last week to shore up a likely NCAA bid. Wake upset UVA to keep the Wahoos from claiming the 1-seed (another sign UVA is overseeded, to me), and the Deacons' struggles this year have obscured the solid season Kyle Visser has handed in. But Tech is feeling confident, and the UVA win was Wake's last gasp. I expect the Forum will be quite empty by the time Tech is finished blowing out Wake. Tech would go on to play (3) Virginia Tech Friday night. That will be a great game, too. The Hokies are an experienced bunch, led by seniors Zabian Dowdell and Jamon Gordon and junior Deron Washington. They would have won the ACC if not for late losses to UVA and Clemson, and they've had some inexplicably bad losses this year to Marshall and Western Michigan (!), as well as getting swept by NC State. It would not surprise me at all to see Virginia Tech lay another egg somewhere this week, and the Georgia Tech game seems like a good candidate. I'll predict the mild upset there, especially if the Hokies start thinking ahead to a game against UVA or Duke.

North Carolina still has to be considered the strong favorite to win the ACC tournament. But Maryland is capable of derailing them, and if Virginia Tech doesn't have one of its Jeckyl-and-Hyde games, it can beat anybody in the league. A lot of people want to see a Duke-UNC rematch in the finals, and it could happen, but Duke would have to put together three solid games in three days, something I'm not sure they're able to do right now. It would just about fitting in this Bizarro-world ACC tournament to see a Boston College-Georgia Tech final. It might sound like I'm just playing the chalk, but I think the likeliest final is probably UNC versus UVA, a game I think the Heels would win by something like eight or ten points. But if Maryland beats UNC, I don't think anyone in the bottom half of the bracket would be able to cool them off. It pains me terribly to make those predictions, but it's been that kind of year.

Tune It In and Rip the Dial Off

The SEC announced a new satellite radio deal with XM yesterday. The new deal is a five year commitment, but not all teams are in on the five year term. It looks like Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State are the original XM line up. Their games will beam to your receivers this year. South Carolina and Florida come on line later. Everyone else is locked into Sirius until 2008, at the least. LSU declined to participate in the new deal and will stick with Sirius.

It doesn't look like your team will get its own channel, though. The Athens Banner-Herald says that Dawg fans might tune into Georgia's visit to Knoxville this fall and hear Bob Kesling instead of Larry Munson. XM says it will try to broadcast a specific team's radio feed at least 75% of the time. I'd say that's an issue. Most SEC fans want to hear their own guys call the action.

No word on how the proposed XM and Sirius merger will effect the deal.

Separated at Birth?

"I must break you."

"You cut him! He's not a machine! He's a man!" -- Duke

Seriously, I'm glad Tyler Hansbrough's not hurt. It was an ugly way to end a game. I don't think Gerald Henderson's ejection was unreasonable, but I disagree with the referee's decision -- in the heat of the moment, in front of a rabid crowd -- to call the contact a "combative, fighting" gesture, which resulted in a one-game suspension. I guess those refs didn't get the memo that Duke gets all the calls, right? Still, I think reasonable people could differ, and the Hendo Suspendo doesn't strike me as the most grievous injustice known to man. Of course, try talking that sense to the Carolina fans, who are quite a lather. A large plurality of voters in a Charlotte Observer poll (a very pro-UNC paper) think the blow was "as flagrant a foul as you can get," which is just dumb. I saw a thread on a Tar Heel message board urging Hansbrough to press assault charges, which is even dumber. I'll be interested to see what Gerald Henderson's best friend, UNC freshman Wayne Ellington, has to say about the matter.

The bottom line: It was a hard, even flagrant, foul, and a one-game suspension is enough of a penalty, and even that may be too severe. So everyone should just move on. Alas, that'll never happen. I'm sure I'll have more to say about it in my ACC tournament preview, coming later this week.