BCS Predictions
One of our intrepid readers asked me for my BCS predictions. At the risk of committing these to google-able posterity, here goes. (I'll admit I haven't looked into the selection order this year, especially in light of the new fifth BCS game, so this is far from an expert opinion.) At first I just had my matchup predictions, but in the end I went ahead and picked winners, too. After all, if you're gonna go, go all out.
Rose Bowl: USC (11-1) v. LSU (11-1)
I think USC just has too much talent to lose more than one Pac-10 game. They get Nebraska, Oregon, Cal, and Notre Dame at home (although the last three are in consecutive weeks), and their toughest road tests look to be unknown quantities Arkansas and Arizona. You wouldn't be crazy to pick the Trojans to slip up in any of those contests, but I doubt you'd get rich picking against them. I think LSU will lose only to Auburn, and be a very attractive BCS at-large pick, even aside from the inane hype we'll get, trying to make this game some kind of revenge fantasy for a split title years ago when most of these kids were in high school. Winner: LSU.
Fiesta Bowl: Texas (12-1) v. Cal (10-2)
I think Texas will struggle early (as in, win by fewer than 30 points) as it adjusts to life post-Vince Young. They're still a very capable team, but the Ohio State game will come too soon for them to have all the questions answered. I think they'll win the Big XII, though. I predict Cal will finish second in the Pac-10, and will end up here when TCU fails to crack into the BCS. Oregon is a possibility, too, but I foresee a Holiday Bowl for the Ducks. Winner: Texas.
Orange Bowl: Florida State (12-1) v. West Virginia (11-1)
Oh, how the tv types hope this doesn't end up being Virginia Tech v. West Virginia. Instead, they'll breathe a sigh of relief when Bobby Bowden does what Joe Paterno did last year. FSU's quarterback Drew Weatherford has his chance this year to fulfill all his promise, and the schedule helps by sending Florida to Tallahassee at season's end. Miami or Virginia Tech are both capable of beating FSU in the ACC championship, but I think this is FSU's year to make a nice run. I don't think they're capable of beating Miami twice, though, so they'd better hope for the Hokies in the title game. West (By God) Virginia is the trendy choice to run the table. The only hurdle is supposed to be Louisville, but I think it will be trickier than that. They get Marshall and Maryland at home, but they'd better not be looking past the Herd or the Terps. A Thursday night game at Pitt won't be a cakewalk, either. I just think that the Mountaineers will lose one they're not supposed to, somewhere, and while I think they'll win the Big East, that one loss will keep them out of the title game. Winner: FSU.
Sugar Bowl: Auburn (13-0) v. Louisville (11-1)/Oklahoma (10-2)
Auburn looks really, really good this year. Kenny Irons is going to be a hoss. I think they're going to beat everyone they play, but they're going to find themselves on the outside looking in yet again thanks to a nonconference schedule including Washington State, Buffalo, Tulane, and Arkansas State. That's really an embarrassment, and I'm not even holding conference games against Ole Miss and Mississippi State against them. Yes, Notre Dame plays powerhouses like Army, Navy, Air Force (is Notre Dame eligible for the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy?), and Stanford. But they also play Georgia Tech, Penn State, Michigan, and USC. Ohio State, of course, plays Texas. Until Auburn starts scheduling some better nonconference teams (like their USC matchups a few years ago), they have only themselves to blame for finishing undefeated and not playing for a national title. Also note that Auburn gets LSU, Florida, and Georgia at home this year. Really, they should win every game with that schedule. They're certainly poised to jump into the title game, and I would be happier to see the Tigers win the title than Notre Dame or Ohio State, but that's just not how I see it playing out this year. As for their Sugar Bowl opponents, I couldn't decide between these two at-large selections. It will probably be Oklahoma because of the national attraction, especially if Adrian Peterson has the kind of year he should. Winner: Auburn.
BCS Championship: Notre Dame (12-0) v. Ohio State (12-0)
Lord, I don't want to see this matchup. I mean, I'm sure it would be a good game. But I don't like either of these teams. I just think they're very good and are going to win all their games. And, like USC and Texas last season, since they're starting the season as #1 and #2, that means they're on course to meet in the desert for the title. Not that this game doesn't have its glitz factor and appeal, especially with these offenses. I think we very well could see another game in the vicinity of last year's 41-38 national championship game. In the end, I don't think Notre Dame's defense will have an answer for Ted Ginn, Jr., and so I'll predict Winner: Ohio State, for Sen. Tressel's second title.
Rose Bowl: USC (11-1) v. LSU (11-1)
I think USC just has too much talent to lose more than one Pac-10 game. They get Nebraska, Oregon, Cal, and Notre Dame at home (although the last three are in consecutive weeks), and their toughest road tests look to be unknown quantities Arkansas and Arizona. You wouldn't be crazy to pick the Trojans to slip up in any of those contests, but I doubt you'd get rich picking against them. I think LSU will lose only to Auburn, and be a very attractive BCS at-large pick, even aside from the inane hype we'll get, trying to make this game some kind of revenge fantasy for a split title years ago when most of these kids were in high school. Winner: LSU.
Fiesta Bowl: Texas (12-1) v. Cal (10-2)
I think Texas will struggle early (as in, win by fewer than 30 points) as it adjusts to life post-Vince Young. They're still a very capable team, but the Ohio State game will come too soon for them to have all the questions answered. I think they'll win the Big XII, though. I predict Cal will finish second in the Pac-10, and will end up here when TCU fails to crack into the BCS. Oregon is a possibility, too, but I foresee a Holiday Bowl for the Ducks. Winner: Texas.
Orange Bowl: Florida State (12-1) v. West Virginia (11-1)
Oh, how the tv types hope this doesn't end up being Virginia Tech v. West Virginia. Instead, they'll breathe a sigh of relief when Bobby Bowden does what Joe Paterno did last year. FSU's quarterback Drew Weatherford has his chance this year to fulfill all his promise, and the schedule helps by sending Florida to Tallahassee at season's end. Miami or Virginia Tech are both capable of beating FSU in the ACC championship, but I think this is FSU's year to make a nice run. I don't think they're capable of beating Miami twice, though, so they'd better hope for the Hokies in the title game. West (By God) Virginia is the trendy choice to run the table. The only hurdle is supposed to be Louisville, but I think it will be trickier than that. They get Marshall and Maryland at home, but they'd better not be looking past the Herd or the Terps. A Thursday night game at Pitt won't be a cakewalk, either. I just think that the Mountaineers will lose one they're not supposed to, somewhere, and while I think they'll win the Big East, that one loss will keep them out of the title game. Winner: FSU.
Sugar Bowl: Auburn (13-0) v. Louisville (11-1)/Oklahoma (10-2)
Auburn looks really, really good this year. Kenny Irons is going to be a hoss. I think they're going to beat everyone they play, but they're going to find themselves on the outside looking in yet again thanks to a nonconference schedule including Washington State, Buffalo, Tulane, and Arkansas State. That's really an embarrassment, and I'm not even holding conference games against Ole Miss and Mississippi State against them. Yes, Notre Dame plays powerhouses like Army, Navy, Air Force (is Notre Dame eligible for the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy?), and Stanford. But they also play Georgia Tech, Penn State, Michigan, and USC. Ohio State, of course, plays Texas. Until Auburn starts scheduling some better nonconference teams (like their USC matchups a few years ago), they have only themselves to blame for finishing undefeated and not playing for a national title. Also note that Auburn gets LSU, Florida, and Georgia at home this year. Really, they should win every game with that schedule. They're certainly poised to jump into the title game, and I would be happier to see the Tigers win the title than Notre Dame or Ohio State, but that's just not how I see it playing out this year. As for their Sugar Bowl opponents, I couldn't decide between these two at-large selections. It will probably be Oklahoma because of the national attraction, especially if Adrian Peterson has the kind of year he should. Winner: Auburn.
BCS Championship: Notre Dame (12-0) v. Ohio State (12-0)
Lord, I don't want to see this matchup. I mean, I'm sure it would be a good game. But I don't like either of these teams. I just think they're very good and are going to win all their games. And, like USC and Texas last season, since they're starting the season as #1 and #2, that means they're on course to meet in the desert for the title. Not that this game doesn't have its glitz factor and appeal, especially with these offenses. I think we very well could see another game in the vicinity of last year's 41-38 national championship game. In the end, I don't think Notre Dame's defense will have an answer for Ted Ginn, Jr., and so I'll predict Winner: Ohio State, for Sen. Tressel's second title.
<< Home