Friday, September 15, 2006

Gameday Thoughts and Weekend Picks

I thought about disagreeing with Kyle's picks on every one of these, just to have fun. But I really do think a lot of these games can go either way. I haven't been this giddy about a weekend of college football in a long time. Somehow, I doubt that the fans in Auburn or Knoxville will be any less giddy just because Gameday won't be there. I've been thinking about that furor, too, and I'll offer a couple of thoughts.

1.) Gameday doesn't always, automatically go to the site of what everyone agrees will be the "best game," even assuming we can always predict how good the games will be. Some years, they've even had a "Homecoming" week in the studio when no marquee games really stood out. One of my favorite episodes was when they went to the Harvard-Yale game to highlight Division 1-AA.

2.) So, given that even Chris Fowler acknowledges that Gameday has always had some other concerns, its decision to go West is at least defensible. Nebraska-USC is at least an interesting game with lots of storylines (and really, isn't Gameday mostly about telling those stories?); this will likely be the only chance to see either of these teams until Notre Dame-USC at the end of the season; they should have opportunities to see several SEC games before then; USC will offer lots of tv-friendly Hollywood-style access that some other schools are a little nervous about offering; and yes, of course, it offers a big promo tie-in to ABC's Saturday night coverage ofnch is that Miami's swagger comes with a little doubt. I know they always play well as underdogs, but I think the Cardinals are a legit favorite here and will pull out a squeaker at home, Louisville 28-24.

Clemson v. Florida State. I'm baffled by all the experts predicting that FSU will finally get its ground game going. I'm confident guessing that Miami's run defense is better than Clemson's, but I don't think Troy's is. Jeff Bowden hasn't convinced me yet that he can turn the switch on in a week under pressure. Plus, Tommy Bowden has lately been doing well in this game. And Clemson needs it more. So I'm calling the upset, Tigers by 21-17.

Oklahoma v. Oregon. It's really tempting to predict that Adrian Peterson will finally run like he did a few years ago. I think the Sooners have enough talent to win this game, but they're just not putting all the pieces together. Since this game it at Autzen, I'm predicting the Ducks pulling away to win 35-21.

Michigan v. Notre Dame. It seems that sooner or later Lloyd Carr will have to break that crazy streak of losing six straight road openers. But it won't be this week. Henne and Hart will pile up some yards, but this Irish team seems very capable of finding a way to do enough to win. And Weis isn't afraid to run up the score a little. I don't think it will be a total blowout, but Notre Dame will win going away -- Irish 41-21.

Florida v. Tennessee. I agree with Kyle that the Tiger Tussle should be the "best" game of the week, but I'm more interested in seeing this game. That's because we already know that Auburn and LSU are superb teams. I'm still not sure what Florida and Tennessee are made of, and I wouldn't be too surprised to see any result in this game. This game people will forget about the loser of this game, because I'm convinced that either one of them could give anyone else in America a run for their money. I hate to even predict that one team will lose. LSU has looked even better than I thought they would, but I think Auburn has all the pieces working together. I think Auburn's offense will keep LSU's off the field, so I think it will come down to time-of-possession (and sheer number of plays with the new clock rule), field position, and the specialty teams. I predict that John Vaughn atones with a field goal that provides the margin of victory, War Eagle 20-17.