Thursday, September 14, 2006

Weekend Picks

Here are my takes on the weekend's big battles:

Miami (Fla.) v. Louisville: Sure, Louisville can put up some points against Kentucky, but the defense at the U is a different task altogether. Look for Miami to slow down the Louisville offense enough to allow Kyle Wright and Tyrone Moss to pick apart the sometimes suspect Louisville defense. I like the 'Canes, 27-24.

Clemson v. Florida State: Did you ever think that a showdown between two Bowdens would be totally lost in the rundown of weekend games? That's what happens when Tommy gets beat by Boston College and Papa almost got caught napping against Troy. Clemson has a good young back in James Davis, but look for the FSU linebacker clones to stuff Clemson's running game. Seriously, I think FSU just hatches these linebackers from a secret lab in Tally. They are all blazing fast and brutally physical. Look for some big time blitzes in passing situations, too. Clemson's defense won't be able to hold the sufficient FSU running attack. I like the 'Noles, 21-13.

Oklahoma v. Oregon: The Sooners have so far rode Adrian Peterson to victory. The Ducks have a stud back of their own in Jonathan Stewart who should find holes in the OU defense. I think the Ducks are a more complete team than Oklahoma and they should challenge USC for the Pac-10 crown. The Sooners have issues to work out on both sides of the ball. Autzen Stadium is not the place to work those issues out. I like the Ducks, 28-17.

Michigan v. Notre Dame: As much as I don't like or buy into the Notre Dame hype, it will continue and grow louder after this weekend. Chad Henne and Mike Hart are good players, but other than those two, who else does Michigan have on offense? Notre Dame's pass defense has appeared solid, so look for Notre Dame to contest Michigan's ground game until Henne shows he can make plays through the air. If Michigan can pass effectively, then they have a shot. Otherwise, look for the Domers to keep Lloyd Carr's road opener losing streak alive. I like Notre Dame, 31-20.

Florida v. Tennessee: Everything about this game, except the location, points to the Gators. The Vols supposedly lost two of their better defensive starters last week for the season, although one decided a ruptured bicept wasn't enough to keep him from the big game. The Gators thin offensive line has proved adequate against second rate competition and may get a test from the Tennessee D-line. They will have to protect and if they do, Chris Leak will tear up UT's defensive backfield throwing to all those UF receivers that move like hummingbirds. I'd like to see the Vols win, but I think the Gators win, 24-14.

BIG GAME OF THE WEEK
LSU v. Auburn: No matter where GameDay is, this is the biggest game of the next several weeks. Not only is this a matchup of two top 6 teams, but it all but decides the winner of the SEC West. Let's review the series history:

-Artificial Earthquake, Check (I still say this is a reflection of the poor state of equipment used by the LSU geology department rather than a testament to the decible level at Tiger Stadium, which is extremely loud, but not that loud.)
-Three INTs for TDs in one quarter, Check
-Inferno next to Jordan-Hare, Check
-Tuberville smoking victory cigars on the field in Baton Rouge, Check
-The Golden Band from Tiger Land fighting Damon Duval at halftime, Check
-A Cecil Collins rampage, Check
-A Kenny Irons rampage, Check
-A nuclear meltdown by John Vaughn (5 missed FGs), Check

What will happen this year? Locusts?

These are just some of the reasons this game is now the biggest game of the season in the SEC West. It is arguably the best regularly reoccurring game in the SEC, overtaking Florida-Tennessee.

Both teams have looked sharp so far. LSU has crushed its two opponents by combined scores of 90-6. Auburn has whipped its two opponents, who were better teams than the two tomato cans LSU kicked around, in impressive fashion. Auburn looked sharp in these games, but I get the sense the Aubs are idling, waiting to step on the gas. LSU, meanwhile, has looked like a machine, totally dominate in every phase of the game. Both teams feature solid quarterbacks, physical play, and headhunting defenses. Both teams have two of the best coordinators in the country, Auburn with Al Borges and Will Muschamp, LSU with Jimbo Fisher and Bo Pelini. In short, this is a clash of the Titans.

Look to LSU's rebuilt offensive line. If LSU can protect Russell and make some running lanes for Vincent, Broussard, Hester, and Scott, LSU will put up some points on Auburn's stingy defense. If not, LSU's defense could wear down under the physical play of Auburn's offensive line and the hard running of Kenny Irons. LSU's young DL has shown it can do some damage up front despite losing three starters from 2005. Auburn, again, has looked good, but not fantastic like LSU has. True, they've played better teams, but it just seems to me that they are lacking something. A big play receiver maybe? The Kenny Irons of 2005? Unless we see that extra gear that the Aubs have had in the past few years, LSU will win. I like the Bayou Bengals, 17-13.