The Second Year

In case you missed it, Paul had a great post about college football coaches last week. He asked which coach has the longest tenure without going to a BCS bowl. That got me thinking. How long should you wait before you decide if a coach is a winner or not?

My answer for traditional powers is easily the second year. Let's look at every great coach who recently took over his program, a traditional football power, and what he did in his second year.

• Pete Carroll - USC - 2003 Orange Bowl Champs after a 6-6 season the year before
• Bob Stoops - Oklahoma - 2000 National Champions after a 7-5 season
• Nick Saban - LSU - Sugar Bowl Champs after an 8-4 initial campaign
• Steve Spurrier - Florida - 1991 SEC Champs (UF unofficially won the '90 championship, too)
• Jim Tressel - Ohio State - 2002 National Champions after a 7-5 season
• Mark Richt - Georgia - 2003 Sugar Bowl Champs after a 8-4 season
• Urban Meyer - Florida - 2006 National Champs after a 9-3 year
  

Lloyd Carr won a national championship in his third year. Phil Fulmer won 10 games his second year. Mack Brown won 11 games in his fourth year.

Of course, some coaches don't inherit a traditional power and it takes them longer to lead a team to a major bowl. Bowden, Paterno, and Frentz all built a winning program after years of build up. My point is not that a coach must win or reach a BCS bowl within a few years, just that the best coaches do when they are given the keys to a powerful car. Others must build the car first. That's why I preface my comments by saying that these coaches all had success in the second year at traditional powers, not rebuilding a program.

So, maybe firing your coach after three or four years isn't so crazy after all. Maybe mediocre coaches make big programs mediocre.