Friday, March 09, 2007

Thursday Night Wrap-up

1. As a follow-up to Kyle's Pokey Chatman post, the situation there has gone from rumors to the reporting of the rumors. A classic press technique, to avoid saying outright that "X did Y." Instead, we get "People are saying X did Y." I'll leave it to Kyle to follow this up as he sees fit.

2. In on-the-court news, what a crazy first days for the ACC! Florida State likely ended Clemson's NCAA chances thanks in large part to a questionable call. Clemson has got to be bitter after the late-game refereeing in losses to Duke and FSU. But it should be said that Clemson had its chances. Against Duke, it only had to stop the Devils from going the length of the court in five seconds, and against FSU, it had the ball with a chance to win and threw it away with an over-and-back violation. Clemson may want to blame the refs for its ticket to the NIT, but it had execution errors and problems finishing games, and that's what really doomed them.

3. But at least I called that one. I was dead wrong about the other three games. Miami played its best game of the year and held off Maryland for the upset of the day. I don't think anyone saw that coming, as hot as Maryland was coming into the game and as bad as Miami was. I'm sure Gary Williams set a new sweat record.

4. The Duke game was frustrating to watch, but not without some positives. NC State got a great game from Brandon Costner and beat the Devils in overtime. But I think Duke can use this game as a stepping stone for the Big Dance. First, this was the first time a team shot 60% against Duke all year; if Duke had played even mediocre defense (by its standards), or State hadn't been amazingly hot, Duke would have won. Second, Duke was able to get bench scoring from Marty Pocius, the lithe Lithuanian. That's a nice plus. Third, Josh McRoberts really asserted himself at times, a very positive development. Finally, I think Gerald Henderson would have made the difference, especially given Duke's foul trouble. I'm not predicting a long run for Duke in the tournament, but there's hope yet. But really, kudos to the Wolfpack for doing what needed to be done, and good luck to them the rest of the way.

5. The late game between Wake Forest and Georgia Tech also went against my expectations, although the crowd really did thin out. I listed to the overtimes on the radio, and it sounded like a blast (especially because former Alabama coach Wimp Sanderson was doing the color). Thirty-four points in the first OT! One amazing shot after another! They broke the scoreboard! The hockey arena apparently wasn't equipped to keep scores over 100, so it started showing scores like 9-8 when it was 109-108. Wild. The highest scoring ACC tournament game ever. Eventually, Wake pulled it out 114-112. It was a shame anyone had to lose. Incredible doesn't even begin to adequately describe it.

Overall, quite a day of basketball for the ACC. They couldn't have asked for a more exciting set of games. And it will probably add some fuel to the league's claim to be the best in the country this year if the bottom four seeds in the league can all win a game in the tournament.

UPDATE: I realized belatedly that I hadn't even really looked ahead to Friday. I guess I was exhausted from Thursday's games. Plus, with Duke out of it, I don't care as much. But I'm sure the top four seeds are very happy. Wake better get a good night's sleep before playing Virginia Tech. I'd like to see Al Thornton have a good game against UNC, but I just think Carolina has too much for the Seminoles to handle. The same for BC against Miami. I think NC State can beat UVA if they play as well as they did against Duke, but there are a lot of teams out there who get up to play Duke and fall flat against everyone else, so I don't expect a repeat performance against the Cavs. But I think the Pack has the best chance of extending its run.

6. Elsewhere, Kentucky burst Alabama's bubble, Air Force and UMass probably suffered the same fate, Stanford will have a nervous weekend, and Illinois and Michigan had scares but may still not be safe. Air Force may be the most interesting case here. Last year, they were a controversial addition to the tournament, and an early loss seemed to justify the criticism. They're capable of beating teams with that wacky Princeton offense they run, but they're also capable of some bad losses. I think they're better than last year, but will probably get left out this time. It's all about timing.

7. UCLA also lost, to Cal, in the Pac-10 tournament. That may be one of the bigger upsets of the season. My gut tells me that UCLA will still get a #1-seed in the NCAAs, although obviously it's dicier now. My logic is just that they were so good in a better-than-usual Pac-10, and the fact that the teams vying for the 1-seeds will also have some chances to lose this weekend. North Carolina has to like its chances now, but a loss Friday would almost certainly relegate them to a #2. Likewise Florida. Texas A&M and Kansas in the Big XII and Wisconsin and Ohio State in the Big Ten will probably cancel each other out. So, UCLA may have fallen, but may still get passed on the way down. If I had to bet right now, I'd say your #1-seeds will be the Bruins, the Tar Heels, Ohio State, and Florida, but that's largely dependent on the assumption that Wisconsin and OSU will meet in the Big Ten championship, and that the winner will be unclear by the time the Committee has to hand in the bracket. Of course, Wisconsin would replace Florida or UNC if either of them lose before the conference finals.

More to come over the weekend....