Crackin' the Bracket
A few thoughts about the NCAA tournament:
First, be sure to join up in the Wishbone's ESPN tournament challenge group! The group name is "Wishbone Blog," and the password is "kylekingbee." All readers welcome!
Looking at the bracket by region, here are my quick takes. My "buy" recommendations are for bottom-bracket teams (seeded 9-16) who will make some noise, and my "sell" recommendations are top-bracket teams (seeds 1-8) who will go out earlier than expected.
Midwest. Buy: ODU (12) and Davidson (13). Both of these teams are capable of upsets (over Butler (5) and Maryland (4), respectively). Maryland has to be especially nervous, because even though it got a 4-seed, any of the teams in its subregional are good enough to beat the Terps. Sell: Wisconsin (2). Any team that can score over 50 is a threat to the Badgers, and it sees UNLV (7), Georgia Tech (10), Oregon (3), Notre Dame (6), and Winthrop (11) between it and the regional final. One of those teams will find a way to get past Alando Tucker and Bucky. My pick: Florida (1). I think the other high seeds are at high-risk of upsets, and I think things will open up for the Gators if they play like they did in the SEC tournament.
West. Buy: Gonzaga (10), I guess. I can't bring myself to pick VCU (11) over my Duke Blue Devils (6), but the Rams are exactly the kind of team that matches up well against Duke -- experienced, athletic backcourt, good shooters. I'm very, very uneasy about that game Thursday. But Gonzaga is also capable of surprises. I think their lineup has gelled after some injuries and suspensions. They needed to win the West Coast Conference tourney to be assured of a bid, and stepped up and did so. Their style contrasts well against Indiana's (7), and they'll be fired up to beat UCLA (2) if they get to round two after last year's thriller. (And UCLA returns most of that team, so Zags coach Mark Few will have the scouting report ready.) Sell: Pittsburgh (3). Pitt didn't really have any bad losses this season until getting creamed by Georgetown in the Big East final. But I think Duke matches up well against them and can beat the Panthers. Otherwise, it wouldn't surprise me to see Virginia Tech (4) or Kentucky (8) tank. My pick: Kansas (1). I really like Kansas this year, and especially in this bracket. A Kansas-UCLA regional final would be a great game. Sure, the Jayhawks could lose to someone like Oral Roberts again, but I think they're a lot better than they were back then. I think they would be pushed by teams like Villanova (9) and Southern Illinois (4), but not hard enough to wear them down.
East. Buy: Michigan State (9). The Spartans can beat anyone if Drew Neitzel scores. If they can limit turnovers and transition baskets, they can frustrate North Carolina (1). Now, they're just as likely to go out and lose to Marquette (8), but Tom Izzo knows how to get his teams to the Sweet Sixteen. Sell: UNC. This isn't just the Dukie in me talking. To get out of this region, the Tar Heels will have to beat either Marquette or MSU, then probably Texas (4) and Georgetown (2). Texas is underseeded, and I would love to see GU's Roy Hibbert schooling Tyler Hansbrough. UNC is young and prone to lapses, and they just face too many hurdles to make it to Atlanta. My pick: I think I like Texas, actually. I may just be infatuated with Kevin Durant, but he is a special player, the Danny Manning-type who can carry his team to four wins (or more). The supporting cast is pretty good, too. I'm wary of putting any confidence in Rick Barnes, though.
South. Buy: Um, nobody? Creighton (10), I guess. This is a very top-heavy bracket, though, and I suspect it will go mostly according to chalk (famous last words, I know). I really like Nevada (7) as a sleeper, but Creighton is a good ball club and if it can shut down Nick Fazekas and if Nate Funk gets hot, the Bluejays can pull the upset. Sell: Virginia (4). Holy crap, get all your assets out of this junk bond before it goes belly-up. Just like I said about the ACC tournament, the Cavaliers are not as good as their seed. I really can't understand this one. The funny thing is, and the reason the Wahoos might even be worth sticking with for a couple of games, is that they surely have enough talent to beat Albany (13), and I don't think Tennessee (5) is all that great, either. So UVA might even make it to the Sweet Sixteen (to be slaughtered by Ohio State (1)). But they're certainly not worthy of a 4-seed, compared to the other 4s and 5s in the bracket. Memphis (2) is a real enigma, too, considering what a weak schedule it played. My pick: Texas A&M (3). I think the Aggies are more battle-tested than Memphis, and I think Acie Law IV can get them past Greg Oden and Ohio State.
My Final Four picks: Kansas over Florida; Texas over Texas A&M. I didn't realize I had picked three Big XII teams for the Final Four until just now, and I may change my mind by the time I fill in my actual bracket. And certainly, UCLA, Ohio State, North Carolina, and Georgetown (to name a few) would be solid picks. But this is just my first, gut reaction to the brackets, without looking too closely at a lot of the matches. But I'd be fine with it playing out this way if we get a championship game as good as Sunday's Big XII final between Kansas and Texas. Rick Barnes has made it to a Final Four, and Bill Self hasn't, and that's usually a good indicator of who will win these games. But I think Kansas has more talent overall, and Self certainly won't be unfamiliar with the Longhorns. So my pick to win it all (at least for now) is the Kansas Jayhawks. Rock, chalk, and all that.
Again, please join the Wishbone ESPN tournament challenge group, and good luck with your own picks. And don't mock me too much when mine turn out to be awful!
First, be sure to join up in the Wishbone's ESPN tournament challenge group! The group name is "Wishbone Blog," and the password is "kylekingbee." All readers welcome!
Looking at the bracket by region, here are my quick takes. My "buy" recommendations are for bottom-bracket teams (seeded 9-16) who will make some noise, and my "sell" recommendations are top-bracket teams (seeds 1-8) who will go out earlier than expected.
Midwest. Buy: ODU (12) and Davidson (13). Both of these teams are capable of upsets (over Butler (5) and Maryland (4), respectively). Maryland has to be especially nervous, because even though it got a 4-seed, any of the teams in its subregional are good enough to beat the Terps. Sell: Wisconsin (2). Any team that can score over 50 is a threat to the Badgers, and it sees UNLV (7), Georgia Tech (10), Oregon (3), Notre Dame (6), and Winthrop (11) between it and the regional final. One of those teams will find a way to get past Alando Tucker and Bucky. My pick: Florida (1). I think the other high seeds are at high-risk of upsets, and I think things will open up for the Gators if they play like they did in the SEC tournament.
West. Buy: Gonzaga (10), I guess. I can't bring myself to pick VCU (11) over my Duke Blue Devils (6), but the Rams are exactly the kind of team that matches up well against Duke -- experienced, athletic backcourt, good shooters. I'm very, very uneasy about that game Thursday. But Gonzaga is also capable of surprises. I think their lineup has gelled after some injuries and suspensions. They needed to win the West Coast Conference tourney to be assured of a bid, and stepped up and did so. Their style contrasts well against Indiana's (7), and they'll be fired up to beat UCLA (2) if they get to round two after last year's thriller. (And UCLA returns most of that team, so Zags coach Mark Few will have the scouting report ready.) Sell: Pittsburgh (3). Pitt didn't really have any bad losses this season until getting creamed by Georgetown in the Big East final. But I think Duke matches up well against them and can beat the Panthers. Otherwise, it wouldn't surprise me to see Virginia Tech (4) or Kentucky (8) tank. My pick: Kansas (1). I really like Kansas this year, and especially in this bracket. A Kansas-UCLA regional final would be a great game. Sure, the Jayhawks could lose to someone like Oral Roberts again, but I think they're a lot better than they were back then. I think they would be pushed by teams like Villanova (9) and Southern Illinois (4), but not hard enough to wear them down.
East. Buy: Michigan State (9). The Spartans can beat anyone if Drew Neitzel scores. If they can limit turnovers and transition baskets, they can frustrate North Carolina (1). Now, they're just as likely to go out and lose to Marquette (8), but Tom Izzo knows how to get his teams to the Sweet Sixteen. Sell: UNC. This isn't just the Dukie in me talking. To get out of this region, the Tar Heels will have to beat either Marquette or MSU, then probably Texas (4) and Georgetown (2). Texas is underseeded, and I would love to see GU's Roy Hibbert schooling Tyler Hansbrough. UNC is young and prone to lapses, and they just face too many hurdles to make it to Atlanta. My pick: I think I like Texas, actually. I may just be infatuated with Kevin Durant, but he is a special player, the Danny Manning-type who can carry his team to four wins (or more). The supporting cast is pretty good, too. I'm wary of putting any confidence in Rick Barnes, though.
South. Buy: Um, nobody? Creighton (10), I guess. This is a very top-heavy bracket, though, and I suspect it will go mostly according to chalk (famous last words, I know). I really like Nevada (7) as a sleeper, but Creighton is a good ball club and if it can shut down Nick Fazekas and if Nate Funk gets hot, the Bluejays can pull the upset. Sell: Virginia (4). Holy crap, get all your assets out of this junk bond before it goes belly-up. Just like I said about the ACC tournament, the Cavaliers are not as good as their seed. I really can't understand this one. The funny thing is, and the reason the Wahoos might even be worth sticking with for a couple of games, is that they surely have enough talent to beat Albany (13), and I don't think Tennessee (5) is all that great, either. So UVA might even make it to the Sweet Sixteen (to be slaughtered by Ohio State (1)). But they're certainly not worthy of a 4-seed, compared to the other 4s and 5s in the bracket. Memphis (2) is a real enigma, too, considering what a weak schedule it played. My pick: Texas A&M (3). I think the Aggies are more battle-tested than Memphis, and I think Acie Law IV can get them past Greg Oden and Ohio State.
My Final Four picks: Kansas over Florida; Texas over Texas A&M. I didn't realize I had picked three Big XII teams for the Final Four until just now, and I may change my mind by the time I fill in my actual bracket. And certainly, UCLA, Ohio State, North Carolina, and Georgetown (to name a few) would be solid picks. But this is just my first, gut reaction to the brackets, without looking too closely at a lot of the matches. But I'd be fine with it playing out this way if we get a championship game as good as Sunday's Big XII final between Kansas and Texas. Rick Barnes has made it to a Final Four, and Bill Self hasn't, and that's usually a good indicator of who will win these games. But I think Kansas has more talent overall, and Self certainly won't be unfamiliar with the Longhorns. So my pick to win it all (at least for now) is the Kansas Jayhawks. Rock, chalk, and all that.
Again, please join the Wishbone ESPN tournament challenge group, and good luck with your own picks. And don't mock me too much when mine turn out to be awful!
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