Week 2 Pick'ems
The big game this week is obviously Virginia Tech at LSU. I think the Hokies will play better than they did against ECU. After all, they kind of have to. The conventional wisdom is that LSU's D-line is a lot better than Tech's O-line, and that will put VT QB Sean Glennon under pressure, a circumstance that has yet to yield positive results for the Gobblers. Sometimes the conventional wisdom is that for a reason. Tech's defense is good enough to keep it close, but the Tigers' line play and team speed will overwhelm the Hokies. Plus, how can you pick against White at Night in Tiger Stadium? I'll say LSU by something like 24-13.
By the way, speaking of the stadium with two of my favorite markings in all of football, the Eye of the Tiger and the numbers every five yards instead of ten (my other favorite is the "Bear Down" at Arizona), I read the first chapter of John Ed Bradley's It Never Rains in Tiger Stadium in the bookstore the other day and liked it so much I bought it. A full review to follow in this space later in the season.
There are a few games where the conventional wisdom is telling me to look out for close games or even upsets, but I just don't buy it this time: TCU at Texas, Oregon at Michigan, and South Florida at Auburn. Sure, Texas and Auburn looked awful last week, and TCU and USF are capable of winning. But has there ever been a better lesson in not taking a supposedly inferior team lightly than what happened to Michigan last week? At least Texas and Auburn won't overlook their mid-major foes. And I think these will be great examples of the strides teams make after actually experiencing some game action. I was 3-0 last week, but none of those games were as close (or low-scoring) as I predicted. So I'll go out on a bit of a limb this week and say Texas over TCU by 35-21 and Auburn over USF by 31-20.
As for Michigan, their best bet to is to play ball control and hand off to Mike Hart about a hundred times. Instead, they'll try to outgun Oregon by tossing a few bombs to Mario Manningham. Duck QB Dennis Dixon will find the same holes in Michigan's defense that Appy State QB Armanti Edwards exploited. I think Oregon will pull away late and win 35-24. Michigan and Notre Dame will slump into their "showdown" next week with identical 0-2 records after Penn State demolishes the Irish, 31-7.
I guess I'm going to sound like a Big XII homer, but I also think Nebraska and Oklahoma will win by comfortable margins. The Huskers will get a scare at Wake Forest, but the Deacs won't be able to hang on without injured QB Riley Skinner (who separated a shoulder last week against Boston College), and will fall by 31-21. And Miami will get there eventually under Randy Shannon, but this Oklahoma team looks to me like one of those boring teams that are no fun to pick but just keep winning. I predict a workmanlike 24-14 win in Norman.
I think the South Carolina at Georgia game should be very entertaining. I think the Ole Ball Coach will pull out all the stops and will be able to score on the Dawg D. But I really like Matthew Stafford and I think his experience and poise will pull this one out. I think it will be more high-scoring than most predictions I've seen, but the Bulldogs will get the last bite, 31-27. Also, I wonder if the next politically-correct attack on mascots will involve PETA protesting in Columbia that South Carolina's mascot glorifies cockfighting. I have to think Spurrier would do better in a press conference than Michael Vick.
Oh, I almost forgot: my upset pick this week is Duke over Virginia in Charlottesville, 21-20. Duke actually led UConn at the half last week, 14-11, and was behind only 18-14 until deep in the third quarter. Suddenly, however, the final score became 45-14. I'm not sure whether that was a factor of conditioning (if the Devils wore out), or depth (if UConn had more fresh bodies late), or coaching (if UConn adjusted to something Duke was doing). It's disheartening, to be sure. But UVA looked absolutely inept against Wyoming, and you can't blame all of that on the altitude. The Cavs lost 23-3; at least Duke scored a couple of touchdowns. Virginia racked up only 110 yards of total offense. I have heard a number of UVA fans openly rooting for a Duke win to finally get Al Groh fired, and that kind of attitude doesn't translate to much of a home-field advantage. (The campus's "Beta Bridge," a local landmark, was painted with the words "Groh Must Go" after the Wyoming loss.) One has to wonder if the team is at any risk of also quitting on Groh. Groh has the look of a desperate coach, having yanked starting QB Jameel Sewell in favor of a true freshman last week. That kind of short leash doesn't always instill confidence in a team.
And, Duke always plays Virginia close for some reason. They get intense in this one, and have even had a few on-field scraps in recent years. It's kind of like Memphis and Tennessee -- one of those games that should never be close but always is, and sometimes ends in an upset. In another good omen for the Devils, Duke linebacker Michael Tauiliili is coming back after being suspended for a game. I think conditions are ripe for an upset. Plus, if I keep picking Duke to win, one of these days I'll have to be right...won't I? Some day?
By the way, speaking of the stadium with two of my favorite markings in all of football, the Eye of the Tiger and the numbers every five yards instead of ten (my other favorite is the "Bear Down" at Arizona), I read the first chapter of John Ed Bradley's It Never Rains in Tiger Stadium in the bookstore the other day and liked it so much I bought it. A full review to follow in this space later in the season.
There are a few games where the conventional wisdom is telling me to look out for close games or even upsets, but I just don't buy it this time: TCU at Texas, Oregon at Michigan, and South Florida at Auburn. Sure, Texas and Auburn looked awful last week, and TCU and USF are capable of winning. But has there ever been a better lesson in not taking a supposedly inferior team lightly than what happened to Michigan last week? At least Texas and Auburn won't overlook their mid-major foes. And I think these will be great examples of the strides teams make after actually experiencing some game action. I was 3-0 last week, but none of those games were as close (or low-scoring) as I predicted. So I'll go out on a bit of a limb this week and say Texas over TCU by 35-21 and Auburn over USF by 31-20.
As for Michigan, their best bet to is to play ball control and hand off to Mike Hart about a hundred times. Instead, they'll try to outgun Oregon by tossing a few bombs to Mario Manningham. Duck QB Dennis Dixon will find the same holes in Michigan's defense that Appy State QB Armanti Edwards exploited. I think Oregon will pull away late and win 35-24. Michigan and Notre Dame will slump into their "showdown" next week with identical 0-2 records after Penn State demolishes the Irish, 31-7.
I guess I'm going to sound like a Big XII homer, but I also think Nebraska and Oklahoma will win by comfortable margins. The Huskers will get a scare at Wake Forest, but the Deacs won't be able to hang on without injured QB Riley Skinner (who separated a shoulder last week against Boston College), and will fall by 31-21. And Miami will get there eventually under Randy Shannon, but this Oklahoma team looks to me like one of those boring teams that are no fun to pick but just keep winning. I predict a workmanlike 24-14 win in Norman.
I think the South Carolina at Georgia game should be very entertaining. I think the Ole Ball Coach will pull out all the stops and will be able to score on the Dawg D. But I really like Matthew Stafford and I think his experience and poise will pull this one out. I think it will be more high-scoring than most predictions I've seen, but the Bulldogs will get the last bite, 31-27. Also, I wonder if the next politically-correct attack on mascots will involve PETA protesting in Columbia that South Carolina's mascot glorifies cockfighting. I have to think Spurrier would do better in a press conference than Michael Vick.
Oh, I almost forgot: my upset pick this week is Duke over Virginia in Charlottesville, 21-20. Duke actually led UConn at the half last week, 14-11, and was behind only 18-14 until deep in the third quarter. Suddenly, however, the final score became 45-14. I'm not sure whether that was a factor of conditioning (if the Devils wore out), or depth (if UConn had more fresh bodies late), or coaching (if UConn adjusted to something Duke was doing). It's disheartening, to be sure. But UVA looked absolutely inept against Wyoming, and you can't blame all of that on the altitude. The Cavs lost 23-3; at least Duke scored a couple of touchdowns. Virginia racked up only 110 yards of total offense. I have heard a number of UVA fans openly rooting for a Duke win to finally get Al Groh fired, and that kind of attitude doesn't translate to much of a home-field advantage. (The campus's "Beta Bridge," a local landmark, was painted with the words "Groh Must Go" after the Wyoming loss.) One has to wonder if the team is at any risk of also quitting on Groh. Groh has the look of a desperate coach, having yanked starting QB Jameel Sewell in favor of a true freshman last week. That kind of short leash doesn't always instill confidence in a team.
And, Duke always plays Virginia close for some reason. They get intense in this one, and have even had a few on-field scraps in recent years. It's kind of like Memphis and Tennessee -- one of those games that should never be close but always is, and sometimes ends in an upset. In another good omen for the Devils, Duke linebacker Michael Tauiliili is coming back after being suspended for a game. I think conditions are ripe for an upset. Plus, if I keep picking Duke to win, one of these days I'll have to be right...won't I? Some day?
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